Clinton Needs Texas Latinos to Rescue Her Embattled Candidacy

Indira Lakshmanan

Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) — Next to her gold medallion of the Virgin Mary of Guadalupe, Rosa Rosales of San Antonio wears a button pin for the woman she considers another patron of Mexican- Americans: Hillary Clinton.

The New York senator needs to prevail in the March 4 primary in Texas, the second most-populous and delegate-rich state in the nation, to salvage her dwindling chances of becoming the Democratic presidential nominee. Her victory hinges on winning the support of a substantial majority of Hispanics, who are likely to account for about 35 percent of the Democratic primary electorate, Latino polling experts said.

The front-runner, Illinois Senator Barack Obama, is campaigning to cut into her base, with some success. To hold him off, Clinton probably needs to replicate her performance in the Feb. 5 primary in California, another state with a large Hispanic population, where she carried 71 percent of those voters, according to exit polls.

Clinton, 60, “has to keep her base and expand her base or she loses,” said Lydia Camarillo, vice president of Southwest Voters Registration Education Project, a San Antonio-based nonprofit group. “Hispanics are finally in the driver’s seat.”

Texas Roots

Backing Clinton will be plenty of older, female and working- class Hispanics. Her roots in the state date to 1972, when she registered voters in the Rio Grande Valley, a history that is remembered by people such as Rosales, 63, president of Lulac, the largest U.S. Hispanic organization, which is neutral in the race.

South Texas — from San Antonio, the state’s largest Hispanic city, to the Mexican border — is Clinton country. Loyalty to her husband, former President Bill Clinton, and appreciation of her commitment to improving education and health care, run deep.

In addition, said Henry Flores, a political scientist at St. Mary’s University in San Antonio, trust in a strong woman is ingrained in the matriarchal Hispanic community.

With almost two weeks to go before Texas votes, Obama, 46, still has time to make his case. He is trying to chip away at Clinton’s popularity among Hispanics, just as he has cut into her support among white men, blue-collar voters and women.

“Obama is going to be attractive to Latinos,” said Representative Charles Gonzalez of San Antonio, an Obama backer. “They’re going to say, `this is a new friend who’s younger and by virtue of being new, he may be able to do it, get elected, get things done.”’

A Gallup poll published yesterday showed that Clinton’s once 2-to-1 lead over Obama among Hispanics has evaporated nationally.

Obama Strategy

The Obama strategy for winning Texas rests on cutting into Clinton’s advantage with Hispanics; winning, as he has all along, most of the black vote, expected to be about a quarter of the turnout, and dividing the white vote.

This makes sweeping the Hispanic vote in Texas even more crucial for Clinton.

“Our target is delivering 70 percent of the Latino vote, and I don’t think I’m going to have any problem,” said Representative Silvestre Reyes of El Paso, who introduced Clinton at a rally last week that drew 12,000 supporters. Still, even a win of that size may not ensure she carries the state.

The central issues for Texas Hispanics are illiteracy and dropout rates, health care, the war in Iraq, where Latinos represent 17.5 percent of front-line forces, and immigration overhaul. The candidates have similar positions, and both voted for a border fence, which is unpopular among Hispanic voters.

Visits

Clinton has made repeated visits to Texas, campaigning for Latino politicians, while Obama stumped here just three times before this week.

One of Clinton’s ads, “Nuestra Amiga” (“Our Friend”), portrays her as a motherly figure hugging a Hispanic child, and stresses health and education. In an Obama radio ad, “Obama Me Esta Hablando a Mi” (“He Speaks to Me”), a young man says Obama cares about college costs and Social Security, and says he is telling his elders to support Obama.

Both campaigns have sent dozens of staff members to open offices from El Paso to Texarkana. Voting rules here allocate three-quarters of Democratic delegates according to the popular vote, and a quarter from precinct caucuses — giving an edge to a well-organized campaign.

Chavez

Clinton has four of the state’s six Hispanic congressmen and many influential citizens raising money and working networks for her, including former San Antonio Mayor Henry Cisneros, who was housing secretary in her husband’s administration. The United Farm Workers and the grandson of its co-founder Cesar Chavez are also organizing for her.

Obama, meanwhile, has won over one Hispanic congressman, many younger state politicians, and the endorsements of Texas’ Mexican-American Democrats and the United Food and Commercial Workers.

His supporters dismiss suggestions Hispanics are reluctant to vote for black candidates, noting that many African-Americans have won office with Latino support.

“I think we’re going to do much, much better” among Latinos, said Gonzalez, 62.

Interest in the race is high. In the first day of early voting yesterday, there were lines in the Rio Grande Valley. In Harris County, which is centered in Houston, 9,233 Democrats turned out, an 11-fold increase from 2004.

To contact the reporter on this story: Indira Lakshmanan in San Antonio, Texas at ilakshmanan@bloomberg.net .

Advertisements

One comment

  1. The perception by some “Latinos?” that they owe this debt to the Clintons because of all they’ve done for them is almost laughable – were it not such utter nonsense.

    What exactly have the Clintons done for the Latino community that you should feel such indebtedness? Did they march on the nation’s capital on your behalf for equal rights; bear the brunt of a racist and bigoted South where they were of assaulted with dogs, water cannons, tear gas and rubber bullets; actually gave their lives for the right for Minorities to vote and live as human beings.

    All this talk of voting out of gratitude is absolute BS and resembles nothing but a form of mental slavery and sheer ignorance. The man Obama most accurately resembles (of all the candidates) the one to whom Latinos should demonstrate real gratitude for the progress they’ve made.

    How easily all you other Minority groups disregard the price paid by Blacks for what you now enjoy in this great nation today – WISE UP!

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s